Bandwidth Futures
As a person assigned responsibility for developing the strategic vision of the University’s access to the world’s digital resources, I read with interest yesterday’s report in the Chronicle of Higher Education of an industry-sponsored study about overall inability of available bandwidth to meet demand in coming years. The Chronicle cites concerns from some readers of the Nemertes Research study (you have to create an account to view it) that it is really a subtle strategy to bolster the campaign of the major sponsoring companies for relief from government regulation.
Anyone keeping track of these issues at colleges and universities is likely to have a couple of other thoughts. First, the companies involved have poor histories of recognizing the shape of the Internet-related market with any effective foresight. It is likely that the companies are promoting this study for their own political purposes with respect to deregulation, but that doesn’t make the study’s revelations less interesting or important, in my view.
Second, our colleges and universities are microcosms that demonstrate the ultimate point. Few have sufficient resources to build to anticipated demand (even if we are smart enough to see it coming) — because of the explosive growth of demand, nearly all of us are simply reacting to the pressures of demands already present. Our motives and “drivers” may be different, but the results are the same: demand outstripping supply with disturbing regularity. We are all victims of the accuracy of the predictions from years ago by networking futurists about the convergence of data, video, telephony and other flows of information. If we expect to tap those flows effectively in the future, we’ll have to a much better job than we have to date of investing in capacity-building ahead of demand.